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Prediction for CME (2025-11-05T23:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-05T23:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42487/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NNE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and to the NE in STEREO A COR2. Source is ejecta seen starting around 2025-11-05T22:36Z in GOES SUVI 304 from AR 14274 (N24E40) with heavy northern deflection. This ejection of material immediately follows the ejecta seen around 2025-11-05T22:00Z which was the source of the preceding CME:2025-11-05T22:23Z. [PRELIMINARY] The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-08T15:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-06 04:17
 - Time at C2: 2025-11-05 23:00
 - Radial speed: 676.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: N33E21
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 608.80 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-08 15:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.50 hours
Lead Time: 34.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2025-11-07T05:30Z
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